Does Syria Want a War?

We know for sure that Syria intentionally shot down a Turkish — and thus protected by NATO — warplane in its airspace. We also know that Syria is comfortable enough to admit it.

The AP reports:

Syria said Friday it shot down a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian air space, and Turkey vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response.

It was the most clear and dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries, which used to be allies before the Syrian revolt began in March 2011. Turkey has become one of the strongest critics of the Syrian regime’s brutal response to the country’s uprising.

Late Friday, Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, said the military spotted an “unidentified aerial target” that was flying at a low altitude and at a high speed.

“The Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it directly,” SANA said. “The target turned out to be a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian airspace and was dealt with according to laws observed in such cases.”

It seems pretty clear that the Syrians know the consequences of their actions. NATO (including deluded US hawks who are happy to ignore the disastrous consequences of the drug war on the US border while talking up more intervention in the middle east) and the NATO-backed Syrian opposition has been looking for any excuse to get stuck into a new interventionist mission. We know that the NATO-backed opposition were prepared to try and get a British journalist killed in a false flag operation in order to trigger a Western intervention.

So why did Russia-armed Syria do it? And why (given the age of F-4 aircraft, it could easily have crashed of its own accord giving the Syrians a lot of plausible deniability) are they not at least denying that they shot it down?

Is it possible that the wider Eurasian anti-American coalition led by the Russians and the Chinese are confident that NATO will not intervene out of fear of triggering a wider war? After all the Russian naval base has been a great obstacle to NATO intervention. Libya didn’t have any Russian bases, and it took far less internal violence for NATO to intervene there.

Is it even possible that the Eurasians are trying to provoke NATO into another costly and damaging war? After all, the American Empire is much more indebted and militarily overstretched than it was before 9/11. Osama bin Laden’s goal of dragging the United States into the middle eastern quagmire, and thereby bankrupting America has been an unmitigated success. Could the Eurasians be trying to provoke a regional war in order to weaken NATO and draw attention away from their own weakened economic picture?

Or is this just a case of an overzealous Syrian military commander taking a potshot at an unidentified flying object and provoking a diplomatic crisis?

As someone who does not believe that war is in any way an economic stimulus and should be avoided beyond self-preservation, I hope that this crisis — and the wider Syrian situation — can be defused.

Those who want to see a big military-Keynesian stimulus may be hoping for an escalation…

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35 thoughts on “Does Syria Want a War?

  1. Pingback: Does Syria Want a War? « Financial Survival Network

  2. Pingback: Guest Post: Does Syria Want A War? | RocoIntel.com

  3. Never mind the politics. Syria can and will not be attacked by the West, for basic military reasons. They have modern (Russian) air defenses, of a completely different caliber than Libya did, and it would take several months of full-scale Nato bombardment to secure the airspace. And even after that, to actually knock out the Syrian army with its thousands of tanks, APCs and artillery pieces would require more bombs than Nato even has in its arsenals. It just can’t be done from the air. The only military option with any reasonable chance of success would be a major ground invasion. I can’t really see that happening.

    Here’s a good blog post in Swedish describing this in more detail. I have no idea what horrors Google Translate would inflict on it, but if you feel lucky, then by all means give it a try! :)

    • Yeah, I agree with that article, Syria is a difficult target (not as difficult as Iran, though that doesn’t stop the neocon hawks from getting ideas), it would be slow and painful victory, and there is too much danger of dragging in other nations. So very unlikely to happen. But I’m starting to wonder if the Eurasian bloc is getting some big ideas.

  4. Pingback: Guest Post: Does Syria Want A War? » A Taoistmonk's Life

  5. Pingback: » Does Syria Want a War? « azizonomics

  6. Borjesson
    With bases in Turkey to operate from, Syria wouldnt last a week.

    Aziz
    I dont get the problem, a Turkish war plane invaded Syrian airspace and Syria shot it down.
    I dont see France reintroducing conscription and suffering millions of dead over the matter

  7. Well said, AZIZ — war should be avoided except for self-preservation (if the “self” is a reasonably tolerable state). Attaboys for reviving Bastiat. You may be a little, or a lot, soft on Krugman.

  8. Pingback: UPDATE: Does Syria Want a War? « azizonomics « Regional Wars!

  9. You couldn’t be more right about bin Laden’s unmitigated success in drawing the U.S. into multiple quagmires. If humanity survives long enough, it will go down in history as one of the greatest pieces of inexpensive, strategic empire-killing of all time. They set the trap, right out in the open, making no secret of it whatever, and the U.S. neocons couldn’t march in to it fast enough. Remarkable.

    Obviously many differences, but the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan may rank right up there with Napoleon and Hitler’s invasions of Russia in terms of “empire suicide.”

    • From a strategic POV, both Afgan and Iraq were BIG successes. Compared to the current fiscal calamity [building-up over the past decades], the expenditures were moderate.

      Like it or not, war is the way rich countries stay rich [destroy competition, steal resources, scare the shit out of populations, etc.].

      It appears as if most Americans need minimal amounts of government/corporate propaganda to jump aboard, as the U.S. war train pulls out of Pentagon Station with greater frequency and more precise timing than do the commuter trains in Germany.

      • Big failure. Price of oil is much higher than it was, hurting Americans at the pump. America $8 trillion+ deeper in deep. America most hated country in the world. Dollar since dumped by Japan + China + Iran + India + Brazil + Russia, etc etc. Collapse of American imperial bubble since 9/11.

        • Aziz, the purpose of the Iraqi encounter was to essentially control that region and its resources. Has the U.S. not built several mega-bases in Iraq?

          The strategic importance of Afghanistan must be in establishing control of the neighborhood.

          Looking at the near-term price of oil is short-sighted. Those bases are intended to be there a century or more [all things being equal].

          Remember, although the United States isn’t what it used to be, don’t believe that this economic gyration is going to alter the basic political/economic story on the planet.

          The U.S. still has all the things that made it the power that it became, natural resources, two oceans and two friendly countries for protection, the best university system, the highest levels of technology, highest capacity to feed itself, AND, a population addicted to freedom [as misguided as that might be at the present time], etc., etc.

          Once the financial predators are put down, the U.S. will once again assert itself, but in a different way. And, in the long run, we Americans are what we are because we do what needs to be done. Although this can be quite ugly [and has been repeatedly], it can also be very positive.

          Don’t be surprised if something really wonderful comes out of the nastiness the next ten to fifteen years portend.

        • The point is excessive debt and imperial overstretch. Both of which the US has today, neither of which the US really had prior to 9/11. You can build as many bases as you like, but if you cannot recruit enough passionate quality soldiers to man them, if you do not control the supply chains of components and resources to stock them, then they are useless.

          In a broader picture US has lost its greatest assets: the world’s manufacturing base, dominance over global supply chains, a skilled technical workforce. The US economy is predominated by financialisation and consumption. In the last few months, it finally lost its role in producing the world’s reserve currency. Game over. All the US has left is military force, and in a long cold war for dominance over Eurasia the US will be overwhelmed by its creditors. Same thing happened to Rome.

        • Aziz, I understand all of those things, but the reason that people like Krugman say that debt doesn’t matter is because sovereign states never really intend on paying it back anyway [nor do they have to]. Another discussion for another day.

          The financial predators in the U.S. screwed up big-time and that needs to be cleared out of the way, but look at the fundamentals. Although there is no doubt that China in coming back into its own, the U.S. [still] has massive advantages over all other countries.

          You can’t interpolate when it comes to history. Fix the economic system, and this country will take-off once again. After all, Globalism [centralization] has its limits.

  10. Pingback: Does Syria Want a War? « Silver For The People – The Blog

  11. Russian hardware is pretty effective.

    If I was a politician I would not go toe to toe with Putin. He advises his “Advisers”.

  12. Assad is making Syria a safe heaven for PKK rebels fighting Turkey, that’s why Turkey so far has not dared to directly intervene.

  13. Pingback: The only way to win was to not play » Why Aren't You Outraged?

  14. http://davidwestern.wordpress.com/2012/06/10/syria-and-iran-the-coming-war/

    I think Syria has no choice it is A situation that should be solved by Syrians.
    Who ordained the Western nations the worlds police force?
    Self proclaimed moral superiority is a dangerous line to be walking, when Nato/US forces run around the globe insisting everyone should prescribe to their form of democracy it looks much like Empire building and colonization.
    Russia and China see and perceive western actions as a threat to their nations, a threat the west has not done anything to dismiss.
    Missile defense systems surrounding Russia and Obama’s pledge to become more involved in the Asian region followed by naval moves into the area, all show western geo-political ambitions of claiming control of key regions on the door step of China and Russia.
    Syria and Iran for that matter have the unfortunate luck to be both oil rich and of great importance as strategic locations.
    Will we see war ?
    I don’t know but i feel if we do it will be global and we are not prepared.

      • What do you think Don. You were around when the Japanese were interned. Do you think these Video makers are being alarmist?

        My Grand parents were interred by the Nazis in German. So this is a concern to me.

        • While I would point out that, unlike Nazi victims, the Japanese-Americans were ultimately released relatively unharmed, I definitely agree that it was a big mistake. I was a kid and don’t recall what wartime authority, lawful or otherwise, was claimed. But government is “not reason, not eloquence — but force, like fire a dangerous servant and a fearful master”. German Nazism, Soviet and Mao Communism, Muslim theocracy, and the rule sought by Obama and his czars are basically all the same: absolute power to do whatever they wish!

      • And this?

        A lot of weapons in the USA. I think the USA has more of an issue on their own soil. With guys like this.

  15. Perhaps there is nothing new under the sun?

    Anyway, when lying doesn’t rise to the level… are we not all, all in, in the fact-based Science of Survival of the Fittest by Natural Selection? While whatever happens by Random Determinism in Entropy?

    That’s the shortest version of what Science says i’ve been able to construct by listening to the expert Scientists so far. Imagine my excitement as i look for the latest ‘rigorous peer review’….

  16. OK, If I was in the Syria Military and I saw the flight pattern of the Turkish jet, I would conclude it is not a commercial jet. It would be flying to fast to be a single engine hobby plane, so it could only be a hostile jet.

    I am horrified by Hillary Clinton’s response. How can they be so brazen in spinning the situation against Syria! This is blatant propaganda.

    The plane is in Syrian Waters, I conclude it was flying straight towards Syria, as it was not flying away from Syria ( Oh the irony). How could a highly intelligent and trained pilot not know they are flying towards Syria. I feel sorry he was the Muppet told to go on this suicide mission.

    It is almost as if they want a war in the middle east. What is their agenda? Frightening.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18568207

    • The agenda is simple in fact it has that very name Agenda 21.This was the reserve of crackpots and tin foil heads a few years back but with the leaking of documents and a look at the world today it shows us there is plan and we ‘the human race’ are the enemy.Its no longer about countries or religions, although they are used to start and propergate these wars.They see us as the problem to be more specific the amount of us, depopulation is the end game and guess who will come out on top and become the new ruling elite?

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