The Burden of Government Debt

There has been an awful lot of discussion in recent months about whether government debt is a burden for future generations. The discussion has gone something like this: those who believe government debt is a burden claim that it is a burden because future generations have to repay taxes for present spending, those who believe that it is not claim that every debt is also credit, and so because the next generation will inherit not only the debt but also the credit, that government debt is not in itself a burden to future generations, unless it is largely owed to foreign creditors.

It is relatively easy to calculate what the monetary burden of government debt is. Credit inheritance and debt inheritance are not distributed uniformly. The credit inheritance is assumed strictly by bondholders, and the debt inheritance is assumed strictly by taxpayers. Each individual has a different burden, equalling their tax outlays, minus their income from government spending (the net tax position).

For an entire nation, everyone’s individual position is summed together. In a closed economy where the only lenders are domestic, the intergenerational monetary burden is zero. But that is by no means the entire story.

First, debts to foreign lenders are a real monetary burden, because the interest payments constitute a real transfer of money out of the nation. Second, while there may be little or no debt burden for the nation as a whole, interest constitutes a transfer of wealth between citizens of the nation, specifically as a transfer payment from future taxpayers to creditors. This adds up, at current levels, to nearly half a trillion of transfer payments per year from taxpayers to creditors. So while the intergenerational burden may technically add up to zero for the nation, it will not for individuals. The real burden is huge transfers from those who pay the tax to those who receive the spending, and those who receive the interest. So who loses out?

Here are the figures for 2009 showing net tax position for each income quintile:

Bottom quintile: -301 percent
Second quintile: -42 percent
Middle quintile: -5 percent
Fourth quintile: 10 percent
Highest quintile: 22 percent

Top one percent: 28 percent

The negative 301 percent means that a typical family in the bottom quintile receives about $3 in transfer payments for every dollar earned.

What this data does not show are the reverse transfers via interest payments. There is no data (that I can find) on treasury interest payments received by income quintile, but assuming that the top quintile dominates income from interest (as they dominate ownership of financial assets, owning over 95% of all financial assets) this leaves the lower income quintiles benefiting from transfer payments, the top quintile benefiting from interest (as well as policies like bank bailouts, corporate subsidies, and quantitative easing, whose benefits overwhelmingly benefit the top quintile), and squeezing the taxpaying middle quintiles who receive neither the benefits of interest payments, nor significant welfare transfers.

To misquote George Orwell, when it comes to the national debt and who takes its burden, some pigs are definitely more equal than others.

49 thoughts on “The Burden of Government Debt

  1. No matter how you wish to dress this viper, debt is legal theft. Selling the of abstraction of labor-value [money] at interest is the ultimate something for nothing scam.

    “You want to know what God thinks of money? Look who He gives it to.”
    Old Yiddish Proverb

    • Well as a believer in the idea that humans can transact however they want in whatever way they want, I have to grudgingly accept its existence. But more than anything it creates interconnective social and international fragility.

      • “Well as a believer in the idea that humans can transact however they want in whatever way they want”

        one person can choose to contract with another, however I cannot take out a debt on behalf of others saying they will repay the debt.

        • A belated “right on!” to robc. Government forcing working citizens to service public debt and impoverishing future generations is tyranny. Jefferson: “I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility to every form of tyranny over the mind of man.”

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  3. Surely some of the government spending ends in the pockets of the mid-income families, either through the direct paychecks (say, to the teachers, postmans, etc?) or through the profits from selling goods to the government (including investment goods, say building schools or airstrips)? All in all, their welfare is probably not that bleak…

    The problem of government debt having redistributive effects on the wealth in the society is pretty well known (H. Minsky, I think, expressed the view that running very big debts is bad for precisely this reason). But it probably does not justify the policies of austerity, which impoverish the society as a whole in times of recessions.

    I find it morbidly funny that those who live in the USA worry so much about their country going bankrupt – living in the wealthiest and most powerful nation on the Earth that through the military might and clever foreign policy put the american dollar into the role of the world reserve currency. It is probably one of those curiosities of the national thinking, similar to how a lot of Russians believe that USA constantly plots how to balkanize and occupy Russia. Maybe every nation has that one peculiar irrational belief?

    • I am pro-austerity during booms to counteract bubble formation.

      I am anti-austerity during depressions, for reasons I’ve written about many times before.

      Personally, in the very long run I think that Russians worrying about the US balkanizing Russia is a rational belief, just as Americans worrying about national bankruptcy is a rational belief in the very long run too. Reserve currency status and global imperial hegemony does not last forever. A lot of nations are ditching the dollar for bilateral trade even today, which is going to be a tricky pattern for the US to navigate, going forward.

      • Aziz, I have never heard of Russian/Soviet fear of balkanization and occupation by the USA them, and your calling it “rational” is a shock! Please explain.

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  5. Well Australia’s housing bubble has been financed by overseas creditors via Mortgage Backed Securities. There is a new term. Mortgage Stress. That’s the collective draining of the nation to overseas financiers.

    The best way to explain to people about the theory of economics is the Island scenario. Money comes in money goes out.. You specialise in one trade and the ship stops coming to trade. You collapse.. Diversity and and emphasis on exports is a key to building wealth for all. This breaks through the concepts to the masses. Even the perils of socialism, when you give the island inhabitants free coconuts fruit etc, and they forget to plant next years crop and they starve (Run out of other people’s money)

    What can I say anymore. Big business looks to make as much money for its shareholders. There is no long term nation building plan. Politicians are the same people that desperately desired to be popular and like in school. They are psychopaths and wealthy individuals and Union leaders/Party Leaders behind the scene manipulate their insecurity and vanity.

    We can talk to we are black and blue. Me I am using new techniques via You Tube etc, making short simple one liners on obscure interest subjects. Hopefully this will wake up the masses, to see through the lies of Politicians, to see the damage that large Corporates are doing.

    I am looking into the International Law of secession, which is based on Kosovo’s sovereignty and what Putin warned about.. New countries declaring independence.. I want the right to follow my own religion and political/economic views without being taxed by the country to fund their ways. If they invade I will ask help from the UN.

    This is what is right under International Law. If the UN does ot help me, it will show them for what they are. Arbitrary decison makers.

    Might makes right in the end. Therefore I have no chance!

    • Buddy, you make a lot of statements — clear & vague, conventional & way-out, smart (agree with me!) & questionable. But one better be facetious or you’re due for embarrassment and disappointment: that the UN would ever help you or or pay any attention to international law! The great majority of General Assembly nations are NOT democracies nor even humanitarian; the Security Council, descended from post-WW II powers and victims, are China, Russia, and France as well as the US and UK.

      • Yes it is facetious. Aussie humour is sarcastic. I have about as much of a chance as Obama winning. It all depends on who wants what.

  6. What happens when the government cheques stop coming or the food shelves are empty.. Crazy preppers hey!

    “At the Trader Joe stores in New York’s Upper West Side and on Union Square, the queues wound out of the supermarket entrances and staff let customers in a handful at a time.There was a lot of groaning in the queues.
    ‘‘By the time we get inside, there may not be much left for us,’’ said art student Lisa Nichols, in the long Union Square queue.
    ‘‘I am going to check out what my friends have managed to stock.’’

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/this-is-serious-new-york-evacuated–as-frankenstorm–sandy-bears-down-20121029-28e1a.html#ixzz2Ad5zooCI

    • Once again, Buddy, events (“Frankenstorm”) validate your facing future uncertainties (granted, some of them are looking pretty certain for some people) with farmland, water, skills and work ethic! But, as you describe, New Yorkers and most other 21st century people can’t go all the way. But we all should start stocking essentials and planting small gardens.

  7. I believe the question that begs asking is, “Why do we need debt?”

    When a very small % of the population is getting a great % of the collective wealth generated [the history of humanity], how else are you going to allow the vast majority to gain sustenance? It’s either through taxation [wealth transfer], money printing [counterfeiting], or debt [enslavement].

    Out of the three options, debt is the choice the Elite crave the most, as it not only allows theft from current and future earnings, but strengthens central authority, while annihilating personal motivation/societal moral.

    • That is what is what I was alluding to. Debt won’t help when the shelves are empty. You can’t eat money.

      When all the trees have been cut down, when all the animals have been hunted, when all the waters are polluted, when all the air is unsafe to breathe, only then will you discover you cannot eat money.
      – Cree prophecy

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    • With past experience in oil and gas exploration and production, and retired in the oil & gas capital of the world (Houston area), I can and do support your “game changer” conclusions and links. There are some discrepancies in the latter (e.g., horizontal drilling was the principal breakthrough for producing “shale” oil and gas, and CNG (compressed natural gas) is the motor fuel using cheap US natural gas. LNG (liquefied natural gas) is the export product.

      • ADDENDUM: the linked (Australian?) truck ad featuring LNG was news to me. If LNG, at much higher cost than CNG, is competitive for motor fuel, the future for natural gas is indeed bullish! There are huge recently discovered gas reserves offshore Eastern Africa. Offshore Australia and possibly Israel have significant gas potential, plus a huge new (onshore?) find in Canada.

        • That is a US Truck and Company Don. This is why the USA keeps innovating and coming out on top. It attracts the best minds, and capital.

          In Australia we run propane in cars, but diesel in Trucks. Apparently a CNG tank is 10 times the pressure of a propane tank, so it is a lot more expensive to install.

  11. Economics and Politics: Reality
    My theory below is based on the following premise by Hazel Henderson:

    “The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise… economics is a form of brain damage.”

    So, based on that statement, I will argue that economics is an elaborate illusion and, yes indeed, merely “politics in disguise.”

    Economic Policies and Politics:
    The entire slave-based economy is, in FACT, the political structure itself. Indeed the entire economy of the world has been and still is deliberately engineered by the very few white men in and of the WHITE POWER STRUCTURE. These very few shadowy figures, today and hereon known as the Trillionaires, have been from the very inception of controlled human societies and communities, it is THOSE people who have been and still are pulling ALL THE STRINGS of the mere Puppets in this OSTENSIBLE government (Look Up “Ostensible”).

    So these WHITE MEN, who themselves comprise the WHITE POWER STRUCTURE, i.e. the Robber Barons, the Tycoons, the Trillionaires, have indeed succeeded for quite some time to keep a fairly tight lid on too much knowledge, learning, awareness, fact-based truth; Since learning and discovering actual FACTS would, of course, lead to bitter protest and violent revolt, and maybe even to their, the Robber Barons’, own rather bloody DEMISE.

    Religion as an Effective Tool:
    Religion is the deliberate suppression of knowledge and suppression of general awareness of actual facts. Religion has CERTAINLY BEEN A HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL Tool, along with Mass media. “Fervor” and self-delusion was, and still is today, accomplished mainly through the veritable TOOL of Religion. Further, Religion serves to reinforce the desired effect of Abject Ignorance which is, of course, the ABSOLUTE KEY in the game of mind control; Pacification through Religion and the tireless campaigns of keeping people in ignorant FEAR. The outright lies which are found throughout ANY religion, also serve as a vehicle for virulent, abject hatred; And a hefty and steady stream of abject fear (of God, of Black people, of Hell, of Satan, Socialism, Fascism, on and on) The political hacks, in this scheme, have found that the employ of so-called buzz words is stunningly EFFECTIVE. IT DISTRACTS PEOPLE; Keeps them really dumb, too; And too numb to react.

    And there is a veritable myriad of other totally intentional distractions, deliberately designed to hide the truth and the FACTS, (Ongoing SLAVERY, THEFT, PLUNDER), Distractions on any and every contrived “side” of the political spectrum; the entire “Left”-“Right” paradigm is also a very useful and effective contrivance; So-called “Issues;” Also totally Contrived to distract the populace away from FACTS, TRUTH. That is, distract the fools Away from what the Robber Barons are actually doing (STEALING, PLUNDERING); Let them bicker and argue about such issues as Abortion, gun rights, etc., etc. All and every technique is used; All are forms of intentional trickery. Religion, though, has worked like a charm since the day it was invented and written down (BY MEN), and Religion is still, bar none, the most highly effective tool for mind control today. Well, there WAS the period in history known as the Age of Reason, the Enlightenment, Well, We all know about that history, don’t we? CRUSHED IMMEDIATELY and THOROUGHLY BY (GUESS WHO); Replaced with RELIGION, NEVER TO SURFACE Widely AGAIN.

    The Late 20th Century:
    So, skipping straight to the late 20th century, the 1980′s specifically, the emergence of the despicable demon, Ronald Reagan, his total embracing of the R-wing “Christian” Fundamentalist-lunatics; the beginnings of the Total DEREGULATION of ALL industry; the utterly Fantastic LIE of ”trickle-down” economics; And the new “service” economy (SLAVE); All worked hand in hand to set the new and more all-encompassing SLAVERY (Yes, that means ALL OF US) and the Modern slave-based economy.

    And every [Puppet] Administration after that old bastard Reagan–Democrat, Republican–they are ALL IN IT TOGETHER–every government tool of the WHITE POWER STRUCTURE Did follow, in lock-step, the ongoing and now thorough DEREGULATION of every single industry and the Privatization of ALL previously public sectors.

    Clinton, of course, was among the most destructive of these twisted, perverted white men, as he is the one that repealed the Glass-Stegal Act that had been put into place by FDR after the Great Depression of the 1930s. Clinton did it, fully knowing very well history and the certain ramifications [of giving a gigantic idiot-child a machine gun, i.e. DEREGULATION]; So, doing it anyway for his billionaire buddies in the Banks and on Wall Street; That, along with the passing of the Graham-Leech Bill, took away any and all restraints, i.e. REGULATIONS, from the banking industry and the financial sector..

    So, look around NOW. They tanked the economy deliberately; They want, for lack of a better term, Zombie-Slaves that won’t think or even ask why: (IDIOT-AMERICA). And they’ve sure GOT them and they’ve got them by the BOAT LOAD.

    Slavery Then and Slavery Now:
    The main difference (other than race, i.e. skin color) between slavery then and slavery now, is that NOW, as the world is literally collapsing from overpopulation and centuries of destructive pillaging and ruinous plundering of the entire planet, the main difference is that those few men whom are “controlling” the people, the governments, etc., are thoroughly capable of committing mass Genocide; Indeed, it has become quite apparent that now we are all headed straight toward the edge of the CLIFF. And Engineered genocide is a clever and historic tactic; And that works too. They’ve been doing it all throughout history. Whether by Guns, Drugs, Prisons, Wars; You name it!! The main goal is very clear: Let “them” kill each other and themselves, on the battlefield, in the ghettos, etc. and let them ALL simply DIE OFF.

    For those that Disagree:
    By the way, ALL of the others, women, Blacks, et al, are MARGINAL, at BEST, in this grim little charade. Meg Whitman, for example, is rich, but she’s still just an empty shell. The women, the Blacks; They’re all just Dupes. And actually I blame it ALL on the ENTIRE HUMAN SPECIES; The Human animal is simply put, to quote John Gray now, an “exceptionally rapacious Primate.”

    NO ONE Gets a PASS:
    And I blame people of all stripes for sheer and stubborn stupidity. Rather than seeking actual facts, most humans willfully choose to believe ENDLESS LIES and stupid fairy tales. People, as a rule HATE FACTS. Of course, on a fundamentally impervious and horribly pervasive, Absolute Stupidity has morphed into a VIRTUE in America!! And it’s a stupidity that is so base, so wide-reaching, that the destruction is total now. We’ve reached the point of NO Return.

    But MAN has ALWAYS had the Ultimate control; Whether by writing dumb books (the Bible, the Koran) to scare people into submission, and to shut people’s mouths and keep them ignorant and under MAN’S THUMB; Or by using BRUTE FORCE.
    Indeed, take ONE look at every single culture in this godforsaken world; PATRIARCHAL, MACHISMO and YES, THOROUGHLY MISOGYNISTIC. PERIOD. Barbarians and Neanderthals. Brutal and sadistic. There are very few truly enlightened men, but I think you must be an ATHEIST to find them.

    Christina Marlowe

    • Welcome to the Cynics club. I am a white male but please don’t hold that against me!

      Have you considered Deism. It is the next step form Atheism. When you run out of logical reason, you can calm the mind by accepting Deism. It is religion without the dogma, and reconciles nature and god.

  12. Essential Quotes:

    “The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise… economics is a form of brain damage.”
    ~ Hazel Henderson

    The destruction of the natural world is not the result of global capitalism, industrialisation, ‘Western civilisation’ or any flaw in human institutions. It is a consequence of the evolutionary success of an exceptionally rapacious primate. Throughout all of history and prehistory, human advance has coincided with ecological devastation.
    ~ John Gray, Straw Dogs

    “Democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears. It doesn’t matter if someone dies. The more people there are, the less one individual matters.”
    ~ Isaac Asimov

    “Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not so sure about the former.”
    ~ Albert Einstein

    “How we dare even prate about democracy is beyond me. Our form of democracy is bribery, on the highest scale. It’s far worse than anything that occurred in the Roman empire, until the praetorian guard started to sell the principate. We’re not a democracy, and we have absolutely nothing to give the world in the way of political ideas or political arrangements. God knows, the mention of justice is like a clove of garlic to Count Dracula.”
    ~ Gore Vidal

    “The kind of growth Western culture has experienced over the past three hundred years would be considered a sign of gross malfunction in any other context. Healthy growth is paced differently – it does not absorb or destroy everything living around it. It is cancerous cells that grow and reproduce rapidly in total disregard of their connection with surrounding cells. From this viewpoint technology would have to be regarded as a cancer on human culture, Western culture as a cancer on the human species, and the human species as a cancer on terrestrial life – a cancer that may in the end be treated by radiation and radical surgery at the same time.”
    ~ Philip Slater, Earthwalk, 1974

    “To most of us nothing is so invisible as an unpleasant truth. Though it is held before our eyes, pushed under our noses, rammed down our throats – we know it not.”
    ~ Eric Hoffer

    “When all the trees have been cut down, when all the animals have been hunted, when all the waters are polluted, when all the air is unsafe to breathe, only then will you discover you cannot eat money.”
    ~ Cree prophecy

    “We stand today at a crossroads: One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other leads to total extinction. Let us hope we have the wisdom to make the right choice.”
    ~ Woody Allen

    “…a society driven mainly by selfish individualism has all the potential for sustainability of a collection of angry scorpions in a bottle.”
    ~ David Ehrenfeld

    Not only will men of science have to grapple with the sciences that deal with man, but — and this is a far more difficult matter — they will have to persuade the world to listen to what they have discovered. If they cannot succeed in this difficult enterprise, man will destroy himself by his halfway cleverness.
    ~ Bertrand Russell, 1951

    “If we don’t halt population growth with justice and compassion, it will be done for us by nature, brutally and without pity — and we will leave a ravaged world.”
    ~ Dr. Henry W. Kendall, Nobel Laureate

    “Anyone who thinks that an economy can be expanded forever, within the confines of a finite planet, is either a madman or an economist”
    ~ Kenneth Boulding.

    ‘I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered..'”
    ~ Thomas Jefferson 1802

    “The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment, not the other way around.”
    ~ Gaylord Nelson, 1916 – 2005

    There are in nature neither rewards nor punishments – there are only consequences.
    ~ Robert G. Ingersoll

    Humans on the Earth behave in some ways like a pathogenic organism, or like the cells of a tumour or neoplasm. We have grown in numbers and disturbance to Gaia, to the point where our presence is perceptibly disturbing … the human species is now so numerous as to constitute a serious planetary malady. Gaia is suffering from Disseminated Primatemaia, a plague of people.
    ~ James Lovelock

    A human population approaching 7 billion can be maintained only by desolating the Earth. If wild habitat is given over to human cultivation and habitation, if rainforests can be turned into green deserts, if genetic engineering enables ever-higher yields to be extorted from the thinning soils—then humans will have created for themselves a new geological era, the Eremozoic, the Era of Solitude, in which little remains on the Earth but themselves and the prosthetic environment that keeps them alive.
    ~ John Gray

    “There is something fundamentally wrong with treating the Earth as if it were a business in liquidation.”
    ~ Herman Daly

    “Indeed, I tremble for my planet, when I reflect that Nature is inflexible: that her response to our abuse cannot sleep forever.”
    ~ Thomas Jefferson

    “Some scientists claim that hydrogen, because it is so plentiful, is the basic building block of the universe. I dispute that. I say there is more stupidity than hydrogen, and that is the basic building block of the universe.”
    ~ Frank Zappa

    After Hubris Comes Nemesis
    ~ Byron King, Whiskey and Gunpowder

    “Humankind cannot stand very much reality” ~ T.S. Eliot

    It’s very clear that bacteria have been here much longer than we have, and as far as they’re concerned, we may be just a passing feature in their history.
    ~ Stuart Levy, M.D., 2000

    “When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.”
    ~ Sinclair Lewis

    “Humanity is just a virus with shoes.”
    ~ Bill Hicks

    The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person
    to fool.
    ~ Richard Feynman

    The predicament confronting humanity is the summary result of all our separate and innocent decisions to trade horses for a tractor, to move from a farm to the city, to live in a heated home, to reside far beyond walking distance from our place of work, to buy an automobile and not depend on public transportation, to specialize, exchange, and thereby prosper, and even to reproduce beyond replacement level.
    ~ Bottleneck, William R. Catton, Jr.

    and my favorite,

    Goddamn you all, I told you so.
    ~ Herbert George Wells

    Cheers!!

  13. Here’s another take on which quintile is ultimately paying what:

    If lower quintiles weren’t getting government transfer payments, the upper quintiles would have to pay them more, which would reduce their incomes and their tax burdens…

  14. Pingback: Azizonomics claims government debt is a burden on taxpayers – wrong I think. « The Jefferson Tree

  15. As long as the very Un-Federal Federal Reserve is unaccountable to anyone about our (Debt Based) Monetary Policy and too willingly enables the Government to borrow easy money while debasing the currency that leads to the most evil tax INFLATION, the more an average common American doesn’t have a chance….

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  17. WASHINGTON — President Obama said in a televised appraisal on Sunday that he could foresee a budget deal in Congress that did not contain fresh increases in cess rates but a substitute alternatively focused on eliminating loopholes and deductions.

    Mr. Obama has mainly insisted that all returns options, including higher rates, should be considered to late the ascend of federal budget deficits. But in the assessment with Scott Pelley of CBS Press release, he said, “I don’t contrive the issue right today is raising rates.”

    Having fair-minded raised rates on people earning more than $450,000 a year, Mr. Obama said the target rarely should be on targeted spending cuts and changes to the load jus civile ‘civil law’, which he said favored the wealthy.

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    “If you combine those things together,” Mr. Obama said, a budget sell could change the loss “without raising rates again.”

    Even, Mr. Obama did not in the main outside pressure increases, saying, “There’s no doubt we miss additional revenue.”

    Republicans, having acquiesced to the octroi further in the year-end budget understanding large, are now insisting that supplementary shortfall reduction be required to get during spending cuts.

    Budget experts put about that to relieve sizeable interest through loopholes and deductions, lawmakers would contain to fuzzy on deductions on mortgage moment payments and well-meaning donations.

    Mr. Obama said the continuing monetary emergency in Washington was to blame for the contraction in the domain’s compactness in the form fifteen minutes of 2012.

    • u g p android: do not assume that John Aziz agrees with others’ comments, including mine. “Free” speech allows the idiotic as well as wise.

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